Health Forecasting

Summary

Activity	Investigating the relationship between summer thunderstorms and asthma attacks; and auditing the availability of health data in the US
Organisation	Met Office Health Programme
Dates	July - November 2009, March 2010

Description

The natural environment affects human health. The Met Office produces Health Forecasts to help professionals and patients know when, and where, there is a risk of illness. Through this understanding, action can be taken, by both healthcare providers and individuals, to help keep people well and enable more effective use of healthcare resources.

My primary task was to analyse the relationship between summer thunderstorms (and other meteorological factors) and the risk of exacerbations of respiratory symptoms in atopic asthma patients. The mechanisms of thunderstorm asthma are reasonably well-understood. However, predictability of health outcomes was found to be poor, with event-based analysis giving high false alarm rates and missed event rates, and regression analysis giving low R-squared values.

I also conducted an audit of the availability of health data in the US; built up a database of international contacts in Health Forecasting; scoped an outline protocol for a randomised controlled trial of Health Forecasting for COPD; and provided advice to other health researchers and business managers.

In 2010, I wrote a paper on the algorithm used in the COPD Health Forecasting service for submission to the International Journal of Biometeorology.